The wind prognosis module serves the prognosis of the
wind velocity and the energy input of wind power devices within the short
time range. The module makes further functions available to the
representation and evaluation of the prognosis results.
For the wind prognosis meteorological data is needed seized with the
software UK_TOSS seized meteorological data is needed in 15 minute raster.
Therefore the wind prognosis module can be used only in connection with
UK_TOSS. The possibility of the linkage of the meteorological data of
different weather stations by means of a data supply matrix permits the
consideration of local connections in a network from weather stations.
For the prognosis of the wind velocity primarily neural nets are
used. Other mathematical procedures serve this for the support. For everyone
time interval which can be prognosticated an own prognosis process is
Time series are divided by the Wavelet analysis in the time frequency area.
In the wind prognosis module the results of the Wavelet analysis get as
on-line parameters into the neural net, in order to improve its forecast
quality. The cross correlation matrix of the analyzed meteorological data
can be plotted.
The diagram offers an overview of the wind prognoses of all weather stations.
It combines a graph of the measured and prognosticated wind velocities with
a tabular representation of these values as well as additional information
like the middle error. In addition for each prognosis time interval an error
curve is indicated.
The tabular representation offers an overview of all defined prognoses of
all weather stations. Measured ones and prognosticated values of the wind
velocity are coloured differentiated.
Wind prognosis status
A status window gives a global overview of all up-to-date running prognosis
processes. The details of a process can be displayed by its selection.
The connection between the prognosticated wind velocity and the energy
input which can be expected of the wind power devices concerned is given
by an energy characteristic. It consists of pairs of electric power produced
at wind velocity in steps of 1 m/s and must be entered individually
depending upon wind power device.
please read our report
on the development here (in German)